Gambling on the NFL: Week 3

I’m gonna keep this short and sweet. I’m back and I’m better than ever. Now let’s break down some games with some gambling terminology.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans
Over/Under: Under
Winner: Titans

This game already happened but, I figured I would put it to show people that I needed to follow my own advice. On a short week, against a division opponent, ALWAYS bet on the home team. But with how the first two Thursdays of the season went, I figured what the hey? I was wrong.

 

Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Dolphins +21.5
Over/Under: Over 47.5
Winner: Cowboys

This game feels like a trap game to me. At least betting wise. The Cowboy offense has been a juggernaut and their defense has been fantastic but something tells me the Dolphins are going to play harder this week with Rosen under center. Dallas wins, but the Dolphins offense scores a few and covers the spread.

 

New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Jets +23
Over/Under: Under 44.5
Winner: Patriots

Division games are close games 96.7% of the time. Somewhere in that 3.3% that I made up, is the Pats and Dolphins game from last week. The Jets and Pats never result in a blowout. I don’t care who’s at QB on either side. It’s always a tight game. The Jets cover, in a surprisingly low scoring affair that the Patriots win.

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bengals +6.5
Over/Under: Over 44.5
Winner: Bills
This one might come down to a field goal finish. And I can’t believe I’m about the predict the Bills moving to 3-0 but the schedule makers were particularly kind to Buffalo to start the year. Take the Bengals with the points but the Bills take it at home to stay unbeaten.

 

Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Broncos +8
Over/Under: Over 42.5
Winner: Packers
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will not stay silent on the field for much longer. I think they have a huge Week 3 to keep the game closer than it should’ve been. Broncos come close but no cigar.

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -1.5
Over/Under: Over 47
Winner: Colts
Indy is a good football team, and Jacoby Brissett is showing he’s a solid starting QB in the NFL. The Falcons are rolling after beating Philly, but travelling to face an underrated defense in Indy will be tougher than most expect. Take the Colts at home.

 

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Ravens +6.5
Over/Under: Under 54
Winner: Ravens
EVERYBODY is excited about this game. I’m excited because one of the best defenses in football is going to meet a one of a kind QB in Patrick Mahomes. I think this becomes much more of a defensive game than people expect. Baltimore’s defense is WAY better than KC and with KC down Hill and with a beat up backfield, the Ravens take advantage. The Ravens are legit folks.

 

Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Raiders +8.5
Over/Under: Over 43.5
Winner: Vikings
The Vikings are 19 games removed from fighting for a chance at the Super Bowl. They added Kirk Cousins and got back Dalvin Cook to what was an electric offense under Case Keenum…. So on paper, they should be contenders… yet they didn’t make the playoffs a season ago and are 1-1 now, and Cousins seems more and more uncomfortable with his receivers by the day. (So maybe Keenum isn’t as bad as people have made him out to be.) Oakland is a good team under Gruden. They’re not flashy but the rebuild is starting to show with actual performance. Carr is proving every day that he’s a great fit for the nonsensical offense Gruden likes to run and their defense is a great mix of crafty veterans and young talent. This game will be good but I’m giving the edge to the Vikings at home. Maybe on a Dan Bailey chip shot to win the game. Oakland covers the spread though.

 

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Lions +6.5
Over/Under: Over 45.5
Winner: Eagles
The Eagles are not as good as people are making them out to be. And the Lions are better than people are making them out to be. This game will be tight and offensive. Eagles win but fail to cover.

 

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Panthers +2.5
Over/Under: Over 43.5
Winner: Panthers
News flash: Kyler Murray is NOT a good NFL QB. Analyst’s are trying so hard to hype him up and all I’ve seen is him fail to read a blitz and his receivers bail him out on bad throws. News flash part 2: Will Grier should be starting this football game for Carolina. Even with a backup playing against a man who is “changing the way teams play defense”, the Panthers roll in this one.

 

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Bucs
Line: Bucs -6.5
Over/Under: Over 48
Winner: Bucs
Daniel Jones is in, Eli Manning is out. The end of an era in New York will not bring the end to a losing streak. The Bucs are looking to jump on a now wide open NFC South. And they might just have the team to do it. They cruise in this one, despite a mediocrely solid NFL debut for Jones.

 

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Texans +3
Over/Under: Over 48.5
Winner: Texans
Houston, we have a problem. And his name is Joey Bosa. He’s a machine and he’s going to be in the face of Watson all day. Luckily for him, he’s got the wheels to run away from him. Watson has a big bounce back game following last week and the AFC South favorites win by a score on the road covering the spread in the process.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -7
Over/Under: Under 44
Winner: 49ers
The Steelers were not that good of a team with Big Ben. Mason Rudolph definitely doesn’t make them any better. The 9ers are my favorite to win the NFC West. They’re a highly underrated football team with a great coach. The Steelers defense will keep it relatively close despite a lackluster performance from their offense. 49ers win and cover.

 

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Saints +4.5
Over/Under: Over 44.5
Winner: Seahawks
The Saints lost their leader last week in Drew Brees but Teddy Bridgewater has had success at the NFL level and Taysum Hill is a true dual threat. Don’t sleep on the Saints just because Brees went down, they’ll be just fine until he comes back. But, they won’t be good enough to take down the Seahawks. It’ll be a tight one, that the Seahawks squeak out.

 

Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins
Line: Bears -4.5
Over/Under: Over 41.5
Winner: Bears
The Redskins could not be more unlucky to start a season. Eagles, Cowboys, and Bears is a tough start for any team. They’re a very underrated bunch that could surprise any team at any time, but not this Bears bunch Monday night. That defense is too good and the offense is just good enough. Bears win, and cover.

 

Enjoy your beers and gambling. It’s football day.

-T

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